Author - fjfnewswp232423423434

In 2017, farmers and the market thought soybean acres would overtake corn acres, but King Corn reigned supreme. Roughly 90.4 million acres of corn and a record high 90.2 million soybean acres were planted in 2017. For 2018, the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist is expecting soybean acres to top 91 million acres, creating a new record. Corn acres are expected increase slightly to 91 million. In 2017, wheat plantings fell to their lowest in roughly a century, and that number is expected to decline moving into the new year with an estimated 45 million acres. Coming off what is appearing to be a record corn yield, the USDA is pegging corn yields for 2018 to average 173.5 bushels per acre. On the other hand, soybean yields are also relatively conservative, expected to come in at 48.4 bushels per acre. “It’s going to be two years in a row of neck-and-neck acres, but I thought with the price of corn being so low and below cost of production for so many that we would maybe even see less corn acres,” said Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor at Stewart-Peterson. Over the next decade, the USDA is expecting soybeans to be the top crop, forecasting soybean acres will grow 1 million acres in four years. Yield expectations are also being raised. Average corn yields are believed to top 191.5 bushels to the acre by 2027 and soybeans will climb to 53 bushels per acre. The USDA’s final near and long-term projections will be released in its February outlook report.

Commodity prices have been low and trading sideways, and 2017 wasn’t a great year for most farmers. Last month, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) released data that show the downturn in the ag economy has bottomed, and farm income could be on the rise. There’s been a lot of discussion amongst farmers if we can compare our current situation to that of the 1980s. As far as supply, Bill Biedermann, co-founder of Allendale, Inc., says its similar, but the policies in place are vastly different. “Back in the 80s, the government was paying us to store grain, so we had huge warehouses full with an incentive to keep it there,” he said. “Today we have more of a free market system.” The fifth round of renegotiations for the North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) wrapped up earlier this month in Mexico City. As trade officials from the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are preparing for the sixth round of talks in Montreal in late January, several ag groups are hoping some positive headway is made for U.S. agriculture. Biedermann is hoping these negations, as well as negotiations with countries in the Pacific go well, because of the record supplies of corn, wheat, and rice along with record demand. He said the world’s corn stocks are down 20 million tons, or 10 percent, from 2016. That’s roughly 800 million bushels. “If we have just a 2 percent loss in production around the world, that would be a billion bushel loss—that’s half of our carryover,” he said. “It would change the dynamics of the corn market.”

Farmers hoping for any sign of an economic bright spot for 2017 got a modest one yesterday. Net farm income is expected to inch up a slight 3% over 2016 and reach $63.2 billion this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS) November Farm Income Report. The small improvement is the first farmers have seen in the last several years but is still less than half the amount farmers saw in 2013, when net farm income reached a record $129 billion. Carrie Litkowski, a senior economist for USDA-ERS, says the 2017 gains primarily came as the result of strong export demand and higher prices in the livestock sector for beef, dairy, pork and poultry. The USDA cites a couple of examples: cotton and cattle prices have helped farmers in the Southern Plains, while dairy farmers have seen strong performance in the Northeast. At the other end of the spectrum, low prices for corn and soybeans continue to hamper farmers’ earnings in the Northern Plains and the Midwest. Litkowski says the depressed prices are a result of oversupply, lower sales and lower government payouts. Despite the slight economic improvement for agriculture this year, median income from farming alone is expected to be a negative $1,093 in 2017. However, USDA says the median income for farm households at $68,000 is higher than the U.S. overall, thanks to off-farm employment. Here are additional summary notes from the USDA November report: Direct Government farm program payments—those made “directly” by the U.S. Government to farmers and ranchers such as Price Loss Coverage, Agricultural Risk Coverage, and conservation program payments—are forecast to decline $1.8 billion (13.8 percent) in 2017 to $11.2 billion. Federal Crop Insurance Corporation indemnities—payments made by private insurance companies to farm operators for their insured crop losses—are forecast to rise in 2017 by $1.1 billion, or 25.1 percent, to $5.4 billion. Total production expenses are forecast to increase $5.3 billion (1.5 percent) in 2017 to $355.8 billion after falling year-over-year in both 2015 and 2016. Inflation-adjusted total production expenses are forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2016. In nominal terms, interest expenses are forecast up $2.1 billion (12.3 percent) and hired labor expenses up $1.1 billion (4.1 percent). Expenses for fuels and oils are forecast up by $1.7 billion (13.8 percent) after 2 years of decline. In contrast, expenses for fertilizer are forecast to drop $1.0 billion (4.7 percent) and feed to drop $1.9 billion (3.4 percent).

USDA's Office of the Chief Economist is forecasting soybeans to reach a record of 91 million acres in 2018—equal to that of their rotation partner, corn at 91 million acres. Before switching acres to soybeans consider market implications. "The past few years the market has been essentially asking for soybeans," says Matt Bennett, farmer and owner of Bennett Consulting in Illinois. "The price ratio for beans to corn has been robust. For fall prices we're looking at 2.75:1 which definitely suggests beans are more profitable than corn." Because of this, it's not surprising that some farmers might plant more soybeans than corn, and might even consider planting soybeans after soybeans. In many areas, soybean yields have been stellar for the past few years and even in areas with yield risk, insurance guarantees could help farmers gain confidence in the crop. "If we had $10.06 for insurance guarantee for beans you could guarantee break even at worst even if yields are bad—insurance might dictate what producers do a little, especially in high risk areas," Bennett says. Farmers could plant more acres than last year in general, too, with a predicted 253.7 million acres dedicated to one of eight major row crops. That's up 1.4 million acres over last year and could mean farmers are looking for alternatives to corn. "Sorghum producers out west have indicated we could see a jump," Bennett says. "People are going to look for other opportunities." Growers experienced a 30 to 40 cent basis improvement in sorghum across the sorghum belt this past month, according to Tim Lust, CEO of National Sorghum Producers. "We certainly saw that push in price at harvest that's not traditional [and] I think it will signal a good message as we go into 2018 in terms of our need for acres." Corn acres are forecasted to be down by 600,000 acres next year, and three million acres from 2016. According the USDA's estimates the crop will likely continue this downward trend over the next 10 years. However, just because some areas are avoiding corn, doesn't mean it's the wisest idea everywhere, Bennett advises. If you live in Iowa, Nebraska or any state with a strong ethanol or cattle feeding market corn could still be the better cash crop. No matter what you choose, be strategic with marketing. "If the price on beans is what is prompting you to plant more then you had better be doing something to lock in that price," Bennett says. "Right now if you look at Nov. 2018 beans they're at $10.06 and just about everyone can make money on that & protect that money on the table."

Soil is life, dirt is death, and the vast distance between takes a lifetime to cross. Mike Kelley is staring into the chasm and believes part of his farmland will suffer stunted yields for the rest of his life. He says the delicate soil balance, a rich, black elixir sweetened by nature’s alchemy, is lost to a pipeline. Pipelines and agriculture are a contentious pair, with a growing number of farmers raising concerns over soil health, drainage issues and responses from oil and gas companies. Mike Kelley grows corn and soybeans in Illinois on some of the most productive ground on the planet—fine drummer soil that consistently churns out 200 bu. corn and 60 bu. soybeans. In 2015, like it or not, Kelley knew the Enbridge Southern Access Extension Pipeline was going to cross McLean County in the central part of the state. Many of his farming neighbors didn’t want the pipeline to come through, and some dug in their heels to eminent domain, but most acquiesced and took an Enbridge payment. “I understand the public benefit of going through private land and that can mean imposing on individual. I recognize that,” Kelley says. However, he makes clear that principal and application are not necessarily bedfellows. The pipeline came through two farms leased by Kelley, on no-tilled ground dating back several decades. Kelley, chairman of the McClean County Soil Board, believed his crop production would suffer a sustained degree of yield drag, but pinned his hopes for minimal loss on construction conditions. With an extremely wet spring soaking central Illinois, Kelley grew increasingly anxious over the prospect of heavy machinery operating on spongy soil. His fears came full circle in June when, according to Kelley, bulldozers began pushing soil aside on ground that was literally too wet for farming fieldwork. In an emailed statement, Ryan Duffy, communications strategist for Enbridge, acknowledged Kelley raised concerns over wet conditions but says crop production won’t be affected: “A third-party certified professional soil scientist and agronomist visited the pipeline construction area, evaluated the soils and concluded that the conditions did not degrade or otherwise compromise the soils for future crop productivity. As required by the Agricultural Impact Mitigation Agreement between IEPC and the Illinois Department of Agriculture, subsequent restoration was completed in 2016 and future crop productivity should not be impaired.” (Enbridge declined Farm Journal interview requests regarding Kelley’s claims.) “There was actually water on top of the ground and they were rolling with dozers. It was so disappointing to see, knowing this was about the pipeline’s time and budget. Any reasonable person would have held off from starting dozer work,” Kelley contends. Kelley argued with Enbridge personnel at the site, protesting the mix of machinery and wet ground: “Their own question-and-answer pamphlets said their work conditions would parallel ag work conditions, but I couldn’t have driven across the field in a four-wheel-drive pickup or my sprayer without getting stuck.” Down a 120'-wide right of way, bulldozers peeled off 16" of topsoil and piled it to the side. Enbridge next brought in excavators to dig a 6'-wide trench. After the 48" pipe was set and finished, the ground was filled in. To alleviate compaction issues due to equipment and semi-trailer traffic, Enbridge came in with deep rippers. However, deep ripping generally tears compacted soil into chunks. When soil particles are squeezed together and the air pushed away, steel doesn’t solve compaction. Last, Enbridge came back with bulldozers to push the mounds of black topsoil back in place, followed by one last tillage pass. “Their equipment operators did a good job attempting to keep the clay down and topsoil above, but there is only so much humanly possible. We now have wet spots and general roughness spread across 18 acres,” Kelley describes. Soil chemistry might be Kelley’s biggest long-term concern. Manipulation of wet soil is a breach of soil health 101, particularly on 20-plus years of no-till ground. In 2016, Kelley’s corn dropped 30 bu. per acre on the pipeline-related acreage. “Enbridge paid for my crop damage, but the yield drag will go on and on. I’m 51 and plan to farm 20 more years or so, but I don’t think I’ll ever see that farm area return to its former production. The wet soil should have been left alone because that was the right thing to do.” Almost 900 highway miles to the southeast in Brooks County, Ga., Randy Dowdy faces a permanent yield drag across 40-plus acres of record-producing farmland (171.7 bu. soybeans and 521 bu. corn). Dowdy signed an easement in 2015, giving Spectra Energy right of way across a mile of his land for the Sabal Trail natural gas pipeline. The project section on Dowdy’s land began after fall harvest and was slated for completion the first week of 2017, but when hard winter storms arrived the third week of January, construction was ongoing and the ground was relatively unprotected. Dowdy lost more than 40 acres of topsoil and decades of yield potential. (In addition, sediment deposition spilled across 100 acres of wetlands.) Dowdy points the finger at Sabal Trail and a series of alleged regulatory violations. When Dowdy signed the Sabal Trail easement, the agreement included a stipulation: Sabal Trail would return all land to its pre-construction condition, both in fertility and deposition (topsoil segregated from subsoil). Dowdy says the topsoil disaster was a direct result of Sabal Trail negligence in following the Georgia Soil & Water Commission’s Green Book (a manual for erosion and sediment control) regulations. On March 11, 2017, responding to an irrigation line leak in the right of way, Dowdy found evidence of jumbled soil deposition and says it is a clear violation of Sabal Trail’s Federal Energy Regulatory Commission permit and Sabal’s written agreement with him at the purchase of the easement. According to Dowdy, an excavator revealed 2" of topsoil, 6" of hard clay and 10" to 15" of various mixtures before digging into the expected bright orange clay. Dowdy believes he’s facing a lifetime of loss on the affected ground due to the negligence of Sabal Trail. By hauling in several thousand loads of dirt, Dowdy has replaced the highest-yielding soybean soil in agriculture history with a forced substitute. (Sabal Trail/Enbridge declined Farm Journal interview requests regarding Dowdy’s claims.) In 2016, when the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) arrived in northwest Iowa, it was slated to run across 13 miles of O’Brien County, including 2 miles of David Richter’s land. Rather than wade into an expensive court battle, Richter signed a pipeline contract. The DAPL right of way technically touched 45 acres of Richter’s ground, but in reality affected 320 acres of his operation. The DAPL cut passed through the lower part of Richter’s property. “Right away, I asked them to move the line just a couple hundred yards north and onto more of a hill so my tile wouldn’t be affected, but it wasn’t happening,” he says. During construction, Richter was assured his tile system would remain fully functional. Things changed when the crews cleaned up and left, according to Richter. By fall 2016, he could see wet spots forming close to the pipeline, but he hoped the ground would settle by spring. As winter snows melted, the wet spots progressed from warning signs to farming danger. Richter was less than two months from planting and was clueless as to the extent of damage under his pipeline ground. On March 1, with water backed up onto adjacent land beyond the right of way, a distressed Richter picked up the phone and called DAPL. He says he went through days of phone calls, dealing with four farm agents before a crew of nine DAPL workers arrived in mid-April and began digging. At one of the wet spots, Richter took one look and immediately could see the drainage problem. In a 200' stretch where the pipeline ran beneath a road, the tile had been covered in PVC pipe. “They assured me they’d drilled holes in the PVC, but they had no clue how many holes a piece of tile needs to drain properly,” Richter explains. With planting dates bearing down, Richter didn’t know when DAPL would return to make the repairs. He hired a contractor to repair the drainage issues and sent DAPL two bills totaling $13,000. DAPL agreed to pay the smaller $3,000 bill, but refused to cover the larger $10,000 bill. (DAPL responded to Farm Journal inquiries with a pdf stating Richter’s $10,000-bill was declined after he hired an unapproved private contractor. DAPL declined to answer specific questions related to Richter’s claims.) “I was disgusted. I had planting dates getting close and had called them repeatedly for help,” he says. “It’s difficult to describe the incredible pain of the whole procedure. Even when I finally started planting, I had to switch from corn to beans three times waiting for fields to dry.” When the repairs were finished, Richter says he was left with 100 acres of mud and a dip in his ground that was previously as flat as a table. (Richter suspects the dip in his land is from compacted clay.) Into July 2017, he was still dealing with water on top of his ground: “I’ve talked to so many people in this frustrating mess since I originally called March 1. They admit there’s a low spot out there but they won’t fix it. There’s basically a hole in my ground and I’m supposed to pay?” Richter’s DAPL agreement requires coverage for 100% of yield loss the first year, 80% the second year and 60% the third year. “I’m 58 years old and I won’t see normal yields for the rest of my life,” he says. “My kids will take over and maybe the land will yield normal then, but who can say?” Richter, Dowdy and Kelley share common uncertainties, frustrations and regrets, and they have warnings for fellow farmers and landowners. “If they need to get through your land, they’ll tickle your ear. Once the line is installed, they don’t come back to fix problems. Even if you’ve got it in writing, you’ll still have to go to the legal system for enforcement and spend thousands of dollars,” Dowdy says. “The only leverage you’ve got is prior to the pipeline.” “You’ve got to get advice from somebody with soil experience, not dirt experience. Don’t let the company put time limits on corrective action and don’t sign off on anything,” Kelley adds. “Remember, farmers look down and see soil, but the pipeline company just sees dirt.”

Nutrient-rich soils spoil corn—in fact, so much nitrogen is present in the soil, a function that would have made microbes fixate corn nitrogen has shut off. Ever since, farmers have applied ton after ton of nitrogen to the soil to ensure hybrids perform to their potential. “Fertilizer is the lifeblood of which yields can be realized—it’s what makes discovering the genetic potential of the seed possible,” says Karsten Temme, co-founder and CEO of Pivot Bio. “At Pivot we’re trying to unlock the crops’ microbiome—we’re realizing there are microbes that are able to fixate nitrogen for corn, not just for soybeans.” The company ran field tests on their new microbial product called On Technology in the Midwest in 2017. Yield results aren’t available yet so time will tell the true effect. On Technology complements a farmer’s nutrient program—it doesn’t mean he can forego nitrogen application for the year. Temme says the product will fill in nitrogen shortcomings throughout the season, which will be especially beneficial between nitrogen applications when the plant is at risk of running short. On Technology adds anywhere from 25 lb. to 50 lb. of nitrogen per acre. The product can be applied as a seed treatment or in-furrow. Unlike rhizobia, which help soybeans fixate nitrogen, the microbials used in corn don’t create nodules. Instead the microbes surround the roots, grow with the roots and provide nitrogen at all parts of the root. “We’re breaking new ground because any microbes that have the potential to fixate nitrogen in cereals just aren’t doing it in any meaningful way because of the nitrate in the soil now,” Temme explains. “Our technology interacts with those microbes and identifies, characterizes and fine-tunes microbes to realize their full potential—adjusting the genetic material naturally present in a microbe to increase nutrient uptake by the crop.” The company says these microbials will not only fixate nitrogen but also increase yield by letting the crop take up more nitrogen when needed. “Growers face a tough challenge because corn needs a lot of nutrients. The biggest problem is rate,” Temme says. “The rate that corn needs nitrogen is faster than the mineralization of organic matter. Supplementing with microbial nitrogen fixation can unlock a lot of yield potential.” “Next summer is what will be the first version of our product—the ‘real’ commercial, generation one product, in the hands of growers and corporate partners,” Temme says. During field testing, the company will document what’s happening in the field, including visual differences in the plants and roots and yield differences. Adding 25 lb. to 50 lb. of nitrogen per acre is substantial, but the company would like to see that number increase and expects the product to evolve in the future. Pivot Bio wants to partner with farmers to establish more trials in 2018 and plans to use On Technology soon in other crops such as wheat, sorghum and rice. “We’re excited to connect with anyone who wants to develop something that helps transform nutrient management,” Temme says. “On Technology will be beneficial financially by reducing potential nitrogen loss and increasing efficiency—all while complementing good stewardship.” Nitrogen Management is a Year-Round Commitment When and how you apply nitrogen is a decision that revolves around efficiency and stewardship. “This is the time to sit down with your retailer, look at your cropping systems and see what will be best for you when it comes to spring versus fall-applied nitrogen,” says Tom Fry, sales manager of premium products with The Mosaic Company. “The decision is a function of multiple factors—cropping systems, typical fall and spring soil conditions, the market and logistics.” What fall applications can offer in potentially lower prices and more favorable weather can be for naught. “Every study I see shows spring-applied nitrogen results in better yields than fall application,” says Darin Lickfeldt, Verdesian senior technical development manager. “You stand to lose nitrogen by volatilization, leaching or denitrification. Applying 100% of nitrogen in the fall is a risky business that relies on hope, not science.” Nitrogen loss should be top of mind year-round, and the most sustainable way to apply nitrogen is in multiple passes. “If you apply 150 lb. of nitrogen as urea and lose one-third of it with a spring application, let’s say that’s $20 per acre with current urea costs,” Lickfeldt says. “If it costs about $5 per acre to run a sidedress rig across of the field, you’re still money ahead to apply a second time versus save a trip.” Take that same concept and compare it with your actual machinery costs—if it’s less than $20 per acre you’re money ahead to sidedress. You can also compare what it cost to run across the field a second time with a nitrogen additive that will keep it safer in the soil longer—if the additive is more than $20, sidedressing might again be the better option. “We encourage farmers to start planning now with soil sampling to get a baseline on phosphorus and potassium,” Fry says. However, mobile nutrients aren’t well represented in the zero to six test. Farmers considering split nitrogen applications with an in-season nitrogen application might want to consider taking a 2' in-season test to more accurately assess available nitrogen to fine-tune application rates.” To make sure you don’t apply too much lime, consider how in-season applications can cause temporary acid swings in pH. Weigh your options now when considering nitrogen timing. The right or wrong choice is critical to nutrient availability and ultimately your success.

If the industry could only guarantee half of your corn seed is what you paid for, would that be good enough? Seed corn producers and companies have checks and balances in place to ensure you get what you expect. Standards vary by company but the seed industry works to discourage contamination from the field to the bag. For example, pollen from neighboring fields could easily travel via wind and pollinate other fields. Seed corn producers fight foreign pollen to ensure the seed they harvest is the hybrid they set out to produce. “We want to make sure a customer gets what we say they’re getting,” says Jim Herr, processing, inventory and wholesale manager at Beck’s Hybrids. Sales reps and farmers use hybrid information, from seed guide descriptions, for example, to place products so it needs to match expectations. Purity standards start in the production field. “[Purity] starts well before planting by laying out a plan to ensure all seed fields have proper buffers from other seed and commercial corn fields,” says Jacob Wyffels, field operations supervisor at Wyffels Hybrids. After planting, scouts remove volunteer corn so only desired inbreds remain, he adds. Corn seed companies call neighbors to find out where corn will be grown in relation to seed production fields. From there, three kinds of isolation methods are used. “One of the tools is distance—if it’s so far away, you have a reasonable expectation of certified seed,” Herr says. “Another is buffer rows. We take the male inbred of the field and put them out around to act as pollen barriers since we don’t harvest males anyway. The final tool is time—we try to find out when surrounding fields will be pollinating and make sure our corn pollinates at a different time.” In non-GMO production, seed producers use all three isolation methods. The next concern in seed production is pollination within the field by the wrong plant. Female tassels need to be removed before pollination by detasseling crews. These crews enter fields after a mechanical tassel puller makes its rounds through the field to get the last of the female tassels. “We walk every field multiple times during detasseling to ensure all female tassels are removed,” Wyffels says. “After pollination, male plants are destroyed so only pollinated female plants remain.” Seed corn is harvested on the cob and shelled at the production plant. Corn seed goes through rigorous testing at the plant. First, samples are sent off for genetic testing—if they don’t meet company standards the seed lot is discarded. Throughout the process companies use a combination of machines and human eyes to check seed quality. Seed also passes through a color sorter that identifies any undesirable seeds or non-seeds that are discarded. “Every step in this process also ensures the highest quality seed is delivered so [farmers are] able to capture the outstanding yield potential of each hybrid,” Wyffels says.

More than ever before, producers live in a global marketplace. South America came off a record soybean crop, which pressured U.S. prices, and Russia picked up the slack in planted wheat acres. Tracking global grain production and weather lets producers see factors that could affect future cash receipts. Here are several to monitor. United States: Keep Eyes Peeled For Jet Stream Activity The U.S. is in a period of limited grain market activity. “Anything that [affects] the grain markets during winter is anything that could inhibit the transportation of grains to other markets,” says Eric Snodgrass, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Illinois. Domestic corn demand is set to increase in 2017/18, boosted by ethanol production and feed use, USDA says. Lower prices are expected to support more corn for feed and residual use. Exports are forecast to fall nearly 20% from 2016/17 due to competition from Brazil and Argentina. The big thing U.S. farmers should be watching this winter is how much recharge the soil gets. “Over winter, unlike the last couple of winters, we’re starting to see more dominant factors that are really going to set up our jet stream,” Snodgrass says. “If we start to see decent pockets of cold air set up in the Bering Sea, that could signal the Corn Belt would have an average or cooler-than-average winter.” South America: Follow the Effects of Dry Planting Conditions Soybeans will be planted first in South America, but the issue as of late October was a planting delay. “They are a little behind last year, but remember last year was a record year,” Snodgrass explains. “Mato Grosso had some trouble along its northern and eastern region getting the rains they need to germinate the soybeans.” The eastern growing region in Brazil had a dry season, which will lower soybean yield potential, he adds. Argentina is expected to increase corn and soybean area, according to USDA. Changes to soybean export taxes could help Argentinian farmers. South America’s farmers are watching a weak La Niña pattern developing, Snodgrass says. “Big La Niñas tend to produce a lot of drought in almost all of the growing regions in South America,” he says. “Don’t forget that even if they take a bit of a hit to their yields, [South America] will still have one of their largest crops on record because they are planting more soybeans, roughly 6,000 new hectares of land every year.” USDA expects Brazil and Argentina will boost exports for 2017/18, thus potentially decreasing the U.S. share of global corn trade. European Union: Monitor How Wheat Acres Shift Global Trade Exports from the EU, Russia and Ukraine are growing, adding competition to global wheat markets, USDA says. It’s now harder for U.S. wheat to export to countries in Africa and the Middle East. The EU has expanded its share of trade and, combined with Russia, has surpassed U.S. wheat export volume. Australia: Track Path Of Old-Crop Supplies Amid Production Drop Grain production in Australia is down substantially from a year ago, USDA says. Yet Australia has large stocks from the previous record crop, which is expected to be exported as the new crop enters the market. The country’s wheat production forecast fell 1 million tons to a level of 21.5 million tons on persistent dry conditions in most of eastern Australia, according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published in October. This could be Australia’s lowest wheat output since the 2008/09 crop year, according to Howard Tyllas, a commodity broker and member of the Chicago Board of Trade. China: Chart Soybean Acreage Growth Yet Steady Import Demand China is the world’s second-largest producer of corn, and it is increasing its soybean footprint. In 2017/18, China’s corn area declined and soybean area increased as farmers reacted to local prices, USDA says. But growing soybean production in China is not likely to affect imports because domestically produced soybeans are mainly used to produce soy-based foods such as tofu, while imported soybeans are crushed for animal feed. “Their primary growing regions are north and west of Beijing,” Snodgrass explains. “I pay attention to their weather about the same time I watch the U.S. for trouble.” The latitude of Beijing is roughly the same as that of Illinois, so weather conditions at crucial times in the Corn Belt are also essential for Chinese producers. Although it was hot and dry in China this year, Snodgrass says, U.S. producers didn’t see a major move in grain prices because China tapped into a lot of old grain in storage. The country remains the top global producer of pork and, according to USDA, holds over half of the world’s pork supply. Growing demand for soybean meal to feed hogs and other livestock continues to positivelyaffect the global soybean trade and creates opportunities for U.S. producers and exporters. Russia: Watch How Prices Respond To Booming Wheat Supplies The country produced a robust wheat crop in 2017/18, according to USDA. “They didn’t have any major heat or drought stress,” Snodgrass says. “Their wheat crop came in fantastic. Russia picked up the slack for the rest of the world” this year, and consequently, “markets never really made a recovery in terms of price.” Although it’s too soon to know what will happen during the next growing season, Snodgrass says, the development of drought in Russia would be something for the wheat market to watch.